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Job Market Paper:

The Distributional Effects of Paid Parental Leave Policies on Fertility and Children's Human Capital

This paper studies the implications of paid parental leave (PPL) policies on fertility and children’s human capital. Using micro-level data, I show that the introduction of PPL in New Jersey is associated with an increase in fertility. To investigate the implications of these policy-induced responses for children, I develop a heterogeneous agent model that combines endogenous fertility and multiperiod parental investments in children’s human capital. I structurally estimate the model parameters to match key moments characterizing the U.S. economy. I then use the model to conduct a counterfactual exercise by simulating the introduction of the New Jersey policy at the national level. The model predicts an increase in higher-order births in response to the policy implementation, with larger effects among middle-income families and among low-educated women. The increases in fertility lead parents to dilute per-child investment, negatively affecting children’s human capital through the mechanism of the quantity-quality trade-off. Finally, I show that in the absence of fertility responses, PPL would lead to higher investment in children, with positive implications for their human capital, underscoring the central role of fertility in shaping policy effects. 


Work in progress

Parental Leave Policies and Fertility: the Emotional Cost of Maternal Care

Winner of Best Paper Award Issued by ISEW and IEA, IEA Annual Conference 2024

This paper examines how non-monetary costs of maternal care influence women’s fertility decisions. We leverage a Danish reform that exogenously extended parental leave entitlements—raising average leave uptake by 5.3 weeks—to investigate heterogeneous effects on subsequent births based on the presence and employment status of women’s own mothers and mothers-in-law. Using a instrumental variable (IV) startegy, we find that among women whose mothers were non-working and able to provide childcare support during leave, the extended benefit increases the probability of a second birth within three years by 11 percentage points (rising to 23 points for first-time mothers). In contrast, women lacking family support—those whose mothers and mothers-in-law remained employed, were deceased or living abroad—experience an 11 percentage point decline in the likelihood of another child. We interpret these results as evidence that family support, particularly from the maternal grandmother, mediates the impact of longer leave on fertility by altering the non-monetary (emotional) costs of childcare. Extended leave can exacerbate emotional burdens if it prolongs periods of isolation for women recovering from childbirth as sole caregivers, whereas if complemented with family support, extended leave mitigate these costs and encourages higher fertility. Our findings highlight the interplay between formal leave policies and informal care networks, with important implications for the design of family-friendly policies.



Rewriting the Fertility Gradient: The role of Socio-economic Background in Education and Childbearing 

 New draft coming soon 

with Fane Groes and Herdis Steingrimsdottir (CBS)

This paper investigates whether the flattening education–fertility gradient increasingly observed in high-income countries reflects a real convergence in preferences or a selection effect driven by the changing composition of educational attainment. Using population-wide Danish administrative data linking women to their parents, we compare completed fertility across cohorts and educational levels, and introduce paternal income during early adulthood as a time-invariant measure of socioeconomic status (SES). We document that this changing trend is concentrated among women from high-SES backgrounds. For these women, fertility progressively rises with educational attainment. Moreover, the SES–fertility gradient itself depends on education: among low-educated women, fertility declines with SES, whereas among highly educated women, fertility increases with SES. These findings highlight that the observed convergence in fertility across education levels masks persistent disparities in who can combine family and career aspirations.


DynIre: Evaluating the Dynamic effects of Macroeconomic Policies on inequality in Ireland

with J. Kopecky and B. Roantree (Trinity College Dublin)


ManyDaughters Study: International Initiative organized by DIW

Research Team with E. Frezza (universita' della Svizzera Italiana)

conteg@tcd.ie

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