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Job Market Paper: 

The Distributional Effects of Paid Parental Leave Policies on Fertility and Children's Human Capital

This paper studies the interplay between paid parental leave policies (PPL), fertility, and child human capital, highlighting heterogeneous effects across the income and education distribution. Using micro-level data, I show that the introduction of PPL in the U.S. is associated with an increase in fertility but a decline children’s long-term outcomes. To rationalize these findings, I develop a heterogeneous-agents model that combines fertility and parental investment decisions feeding into a function of human capital that accumulates across multiple stages of childhood. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model replicates between 40 and 80\% of the fertility response estimated in my empirical analysis. I then use it as a policy laboratory to study a more generous paid leave scheme and show that fertility responses vary across the income and education distribution, generating a quantity–quality trade-off among families facing binding budget constraints. Finally, I show that in the absence of fertility responses, PPL would raise child human capital, underscoring the central role of fertility in shaping policy effects.


Parental Leave Policies and Fertility: the Emotional Cost of Maternal Care

Winner of Best Paper Award Issued by ISEW and IEA, IEA Annual Conference 2024

This paper examines how non-monetary costs of maternal care influence women’s fertility decisions. We leverage a Danish reform that exogenously extended parental leave entitlements—raising average leave uptake by 5.3 weeks—to investigate heterogeneous effects on subsequent births based on the presence and employment status of women’s own mothers and mothers-in-law. Using a instrumental variable (IV) startegy, we find that among women whose mothers were non-working and able to provide childcare support during leave, the extended benefit increases the probability of a second birth within three years by 11 percentage points (rising to 23 points for first-time mothers). In contrast, women lacking family support—those whose mothers and mothers-in-law remained employed, were deceased or living abroad—experience an 11 percentage point decline in the likelihood of another child. We interpret these results as evidence that family support, particularly from the maternal grandmother, mediates the impact of longer leave on fertility by altering the non-monetary (emotional) costs of childcare. Extended leave can exacerbate emotional burdens if it prolongs periods of isolation for women recovering from childbirth as sole caregivers, whereas if complemented with family support, extended leave mitigate these costs and encourages higher fertility. Our findings highlight the interplay between formal leave policies and informal care networks, with important implications for the design of family-friendly policies.



Rewriting the Fertility Gradient: The role of Socio-economic Background in Education and Childbearing 

 with Fane Groes and Herdis Steingrimsdottir (CBS)

This paper investigates whether the flattening education–fertility gradient increasingly observed in high-income countries reflects a real convergence in preferences or a selection effect driven by the changing composition of educational attainment. Using population-wide Danish administrative data linking women to their parents, we compare completed fertility across cohorts and educational levels, and introduce paternal income during early adulthood as a time-invariant measure of socioeconomic status (SES). We document that this changing trend is concentrated among women from high-SES backgrounds. For these women, fertility progressively rises with educational attainment. Moreover, the SES–fertility gradient itself depends on education: among low-educated women, fertility declines with SES, whereas among highly educated women, fertility increases with SES. These findings highlight that the observed convergence in fertility across education levels masks persistent disparities in who can combine family and career aspirations.


conteg@tcd.ie

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